Lowest price on record, but the dip is already overdue

At $18.99, this item sits at its lowest point in the past 365 days. The calculated typical price over that period is $49.89, with a yearly high of $67.60. The current 62% discount against that typical price is therefore the best on record, and the price has never dropped lower over the full year.

Here's the nuance: before this deal, the realistically attainable low was closer to $19.99, reached only twice and held for 20 days total. Drops below the typical price usually last a median of 17 days and recur roughly every 33 days. The current drop, though, has already lasted 55 days, well beyond that usual pattern. The price also shifts often, changing on average every 5 days, pointing to some volatility. Worth noting too that around sales events, the price had actually climbed beforehand in half of the cases observed.

Given how unusually long this dip has already run, the odds of a rebound are rising. For buyers targeting this price range, acting now looks safer than waiting for an even lower point that has never actually occurred.