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A rare low: $12.04 held for just 65 days in a year
Out of 20 events observed, the price really dropped 9 times, by about 24.3 % on average. In 3 cases, the price had climbed about 20 % in the two weeks before.
The current price of $12.04 matches the real floor seen over the past 365 days, a level hit only 3 times all year for a combined 65 days. That's 24% below the usual price of $15.88, and well under the yearly peak of $29.96.
This low point isn't common: historically, the price stays under $15.88 for about 54 days at a stretch, returning roughly every 83 days. A drop just started, only 1 day ago, and based on this pattern it could last around 53 more days. The price moves infrequently, about every 23 days on average, making this dip more predictable than on more volatile items.
Caution is warranted around commercial events: in 3 out of 20 cases, the price was inflated beforehand to fake a bigger discount. The best historical windows were Prime Big Deals (27.2% average discount) and Spring Sale (16.3%). Given the current low, buying now looks like a reasonable move rather than waiting for the next event.