Out of 28 events observed, the price really dropped 9 times, by about 11.1 % on average. In 6 cases, the price had climbed about 87.4 % in the two weeks before.
At 20,38 $, the current price sits below the 29,22 $ yearly baseline, and a price drop is already underway, one day in, with roughly 11 more days likely remaining based on past patterns.
That said, this price moves constantly, shifting on average every single day. A lower floor of 18,97 $ has been reached 49 times over the year, totaling 57 days at that level. Dips below the yearly baseline tend to occur about every 23 days and last around 12 days, so the current drop isn't unusual. Be cautious with event-based discounts too: in several past cases, the price was inflated shortly before the event to make the advertised savings look bigger.
If 20,38 $ meets your immediate need, it's a reasonable price to act on. For a better deal, 18,97 $ is a realistic target, though it may mean waiting for the next drop cycle, possibly within the coming weeks.